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Prediction for CME (2024-05-29T14:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-29T14:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31200/-1
CME Note: There is no clear arrival signature observed for this CME at L1. Large, bright partial halo CME to east in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME is the X1.4 class flare from AR13697 with associated moving/opening field lines visible in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and GOES SUVI 284. Additionally, a thin filament ejecta was visible during the eruption as seen in GOES SUVI 304. Post-eruptive arcades followed the flare as seen in SDO/AIA 193 and 171.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-31T18:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2024 May 30 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 30-Jun 01 2024 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 30-Jun 01 2024

             May 30       May 31       Jun 01
00-03UT       1.00         1.67         5.67 (G2)
03-06UT       1.67         1.33         5.00 (G1)
06-09UT       1.67         1.33         4.33     
09-12UT       2.00         1.33         3.00     
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         2.33     
15-18UT       1.67         4.67 (G1)    2.00     
18-21UT       2.00         6.00 (G2)    2.67     
21-00UT       2.00         5.33 (G1)    2.33     

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely
on 31 May-01 Jun due to flanking effects from the 29 May CME.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 May 30 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
...
Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are expected through the rest of 30 May. G1-G2
(Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely to commence by late 31
May and continue into 01 Jun due to flanking CME effects from the
aforementioned X1.4 flare and subsequent CME eruption of 29 May.

Lead Time: 45.43 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2024-05-29T20:34Z

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